Ashes Prediction - Spot On

Anybody remember my prediction for this Ashes Series? Does 3-1 to England ring a bell? Holy heck. I was right. Wish I'd had a few bob on that.

Ashes Prediction

In case you've been robbing a pub with a machete and been gunned down by the police (see previous post) or have just been living under a rock, there's going to be a huge cricket test series taking place called The Ashes. It starts in Brisbane on Thursday. Australia versus England (and Wales). Well, Australia versus England/Wales/Scotland/Ireland/South Africa/West Indies and any other cricket-playing nation that can provide them with decent cricketers. But enough of that.

The Teams:

Australia - Ponting, Clarke, Bollinger, Doherty, Ferguson, Haddin, Harris, Hauritz, Hussey, Hilfenhaus, Johnson, Katich, Khawaja, North, Siddle, Smith, Watson.

England (and decent players from Rest of the World) - Strauss, Cook, Anderson, Bell, Collingwood, Pietersen, Bresnan, Broad, Davies, Finn, Morgan, Panesar, Prior, Swann, Tremlett, Trott.

The Venues:

* 1st Test - The Gabba - 25th-29th November 2010
* 2nd Test - The Adelaide Oval - 3rd-7th December 2010
* 3rd Test - The WACA - 16th-20th December 2010
* 4th Test - The MCG - 26th-30th December 2010
* 5th Test - Sydney Cricket Ground - 3rd-7th January 2011

The Gabba. Brisbane. Usually steamy with the ball doing a great deal in the opening session. Nightmare for batsmen early on. If England were to bat and survive the first session without losing a wicket I'm afraid the Aussies are done for. If the Aussies were to have them 4 for then we're in with a shot.

Adelaide Oval. Adelaide (of course). Great batting pitch. I expect the Poms to bat better than the Aussies and this match could be a draw only because England decide to make 700 runs instead of 500 "just to be safe".

The WACA. Perth. Should be 38C. Every day. The heat should take it out of the Poms and I expect the Aussies to win this match. Extra bounce might be difficult for the Poms to get used to.

The MCG. Melbourne. One of the greatest sporting arenas in the world hosting a magnificent contest. That is if England isn't already 3-0 up and has won the series. Weather plays a bit part in Melbourne. Expect it to be dry, windy, cold, wet and then sunny. All before the first drinks break. Expect more of the same after the first drinks break. Should be just like playing in England. Except for the dry and sunny bits. England to triumph.

SCG. Sydney. Traditional turning pitch. Aussies having already lost the series will include Hauritz, Doherty, Smith, North and Clark as spinners desparate to win a match. Graeme Swann and Monty Panesar will show them how to bowl and England will still win. If the weather holds up.

betfair odds (23/11/2010):
Aust $2.06
Eng $2.86
Draw $5.70

Reasons that I think Australia will struggle to be competitive include;

Mitchell Johnson doesn't have enough support from the other bowlers to enable him to be the frontline bowler that we all know he can be. He'll try to hard to bowl England out and not concentrate on putting the ball in the right spot. Not enough discipline from the bowlers to keep the pressure on.

Michael Clark appears to just want to maintain a decent batting average and in no way attempts to push the scoring along when batting with the tail. Steve Waugh did this very effectively. Perhaps it's a blessing in disguise that he's injured and we might actually unearth someone who is a batsman.

Ricky Ponting is past his prime with regards to his batting and captaincy. Time for Brad Haddin to replace him. If we lose this series, as I expect, although the bookies don't, he'll lose the captaincy.

Hussey and North will be batting to retain their spots rather than batting with supremacy over England. Not going to be consistent enough.

Watson and Katich should be the best performing Aussies bats, followed by Johnson (at least in average) as the ball won't move around as much as the England bowlers are used to. But with Watson having injured himself in the last Shield match Australia will miss his bowling ability.

Collingwood will be a thorn as he is difficult to remove and a great fighter. Reminds me a great deal of Steve Waugh.

Broad is a great young bowler with some fire in the belly. Also a tad petulant but will give as good as he gets. Decent bat as well and with tired Aussie bowlers will score a fair amount of runs.

Pietersen could change a test match during one session. Expect to see this happen a couple of times during the series.

I’m tipping England 3-1. Hard to see any match not having a result.

Who Will Win The 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa?

Who will win the World Cup being held in South Africa in two weeks time? And does anybody care? I'm not sure what is going on this time around but normally all the water cooler talk in the weeks leading up to the World Cup revolves around who will win. Hardly a word is spoken at work and it doesn't seem that too many others are interested either. Is it because we've just seen the IPL finish the season and the T20 World Cup having been played and won (by England if you missed it)?

Or does it have more to do with the fact that news emanating from South Africa appears to be focusing on the negative aspects of the country - law and disorder, violence, terrorist threats, Robert Mugabe nearby, the shanty towns, the governmental mismanagement, dictatorial leadership, etc? That would be a real shame as I believe that FIFA had great intentions of bewstowing the World Cup on Africa, with its host of developing nations, for the betterment of football (soccer - it's so difficult to get my head around that term). It could so easily have been awarded to a developed nation/s but the long term future of the game will be better served by allowing those less fortunate than first world countries to host it.

I do hope that South Africa hosts a successful tournament. It is the largest competition, along with the Olympics, so deserves to be held successfully. And I'd like to see an African nation make it to the final. To play Australia that is.

Tournament Schedule (Fixtures list)

For what it is worth I think the winner will come out of Brazil, Germany, Argentina, Spain and Italy. Dark horses would include Ghana, Cameroon and South Korea.

I don't think that Germany can win it without Michael Ballack. I'd hate to see Italy do well after they cheated Australia last time around. Spain usually wilts in the big tournaments. Oh, I haven't mentioned France. Brazil will be there or thereabouts. Argentina will do well.

Let's do a more in-depth study and be a bit more methodical, shall we?

Group A - South Africa, Mexico, France and Uruguay. Can't see South Africa or Mexico going through to the second round.
Group B - Argentina, Greece, South Korea and Nigeria. Looking at past form I'd see Argentina and Nigeria booking places in the second round. South Korea will battle for second place but the surprise could be that that is against Argentina and not Nigeria whom I'd expect to do well on their home continent.
Group C - England, Algeria, Slovenia and USA. I see England and Slovenia advancing.
Group D - Germany, Serbia, Ghana and Australia. I'd love to pick the Aussies to go through but see a somewhat vulnerable Germany lacking their captain being most assured of advancing with perhaps sentimental favourite Ghana. Serbia and Australia should make a good fist of this so it really is the group of death.
Group E - Netherlands, Denmark, Japan and Cameroon. I'd expect the Netherlands and Cameroon to be playing 2nd round football.
Group F - Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand and Slovakia. There is a place in my heart for Slovakia but I see Paraguay going through with Italy. New Zealand should put a scare through the opposition as they have a bit of striking force and Italy may actually miss out as they are notorious slow starters.
Group G - Ivory Coast, Brazil, Portugal and North Korea. Hmm, Brazil. Obviously. Ivory Coast and Portugal to battle out the other spot with Ivory Coast getting the nod.
Group H - Honduras, Chile, Spain and Switzerland. Spain and Chile fairly easily.

Round of 16 (2nd Stage)
1A vs 2B - Uruguay vs Nigeria. Nigeria to win.
1C vs 2D - England vs Ghana. England.
1E vs 2F - Netherlands vs Italy. Netherlands.
1G vs 2H - Brazil vs Chile. Brazil.

1B vs 2A - Argentina vs France. Argentina.
1D vs 2C - Germany vs Slovenia. Germany.
1F vs 2E - Paraguay vs Cameroon. Cameroon.
1H vs 2G - Spain vs Ivory Coast. Spain.

Quarter-Finals
Nigeria vs England. Bye, bye England.
Netherlands vs Brazil. Brazil. Just.
Argentina vs Germany. Argentina.
Cameroon vs Spain. Cameroon.

Semi-Finals
Nigeria vs Brazil. Brazil.
Argentina vs Cameroon. Argentina.

Third Place Playoff
Nigeria vs Cameroon. Cameroon - better play in the group qualifying stage.

2010 World Cup Final South Africa
Brazil vs Argentina. Toughie. I'm gonna stick my neck out and say Argentina. I dunno why as they finished as the 4th best team in South American qualifying and Brazil finished on top.

There. I've said it. Argentina will win the World Cup in 2010. Now watch them tumble out in the first round. If the game isn't on too late where you are. Most of the Aussies matches are late starts (10:30pm) or early mornings (2:30am). Not sure how many I will see. C'mon Aussie.

AFL Ladder Prediction For 2010

Here's Frugal Bastard's long-awaited prediction for the final placings in this years AFL premiership competition. Hmmm, ok, maybe nobody has been waiting a long time for this. And the numbers of those waiting for a short period are thin on the ground too. But here are my predictions anyway.

1. Western Bulldogs. It's their time. Hopefully Brad Johnson stays fit. They are an exciting team and play the way I like to see it played.
2. Saint Kilda. They were lucky with injuries last year and that generally doesn't happen two years in a row. Will be up there though as they are a very balanced team.
3. Geelong. Fabulous team of hard nuts and talented footballers. Gary Ablett Jr. and Joel Selwood must remain fit.
4. Hawthorn. Probably have the most devestating forward line in the premiership. Will be a long way back from missing the finals last year, as defending champion, so I don't expect them to take the crown.
5. Adelaide. They have a very balanced squad and are quite strong in the forward line. I think that the aging stars in McLeod, Goodwin and Edwards will need to be carried a bit and this will count against them.
6. Brisbane. These guys could do anything. With Brendan Fevola in the forward line they'll have difficulty in keeping the scoring to the playing field. Jonathon Brown is the most fearsome player in the competition and would make my squad any day. Simon Black, as talented as he is, isn't getting any younger.
7. Collingwood. Much as I'd like to see them pick up a wooden spoon I think they'll make the eight.
8. Carlton. Second only in deserving of my vitriol, behind Collingwood, they're probably good enough to play finals.
9. West Coast Eagles. I don't see them having enough stars to play finals this year. Their backline isn't strong enough when Darren Glass is expected to do too much and they have a fragile forward line. Hard to beat at home though.
10. Essendon. Some big names departed over the summer, mainly from the forward line, and without consistent players up front and too much reliance on a good midfield that's not capable of kicking enough goals, they will be down the ladder this year.
11. Sydney. Not consistent enough to play finals. Have a few stars and will win eight or nine games for the season.
12. Port Adelaide. Lost a superstar in Shaun Burgoyne and has kept too many of the old stars. Can't see them winning more than seven or eight games.
13. Fremantle. I reckon they'll win about six games this year. Don't travel well but reasonably good at home.
14. Richmond. Is this the year for the Tigers? No chance! Could win four games though.
15. North Melbourne. Good team but lost so many stars and will rely too much on the old guys. Not much of a forward line and lost one of their best defenders in Josh Gibson to Hawthorn. Will struggle to provide an honest effort all season.
16. Melbourne. Can't see them doing anything this year except increasing discussion in the tanking debate. So many early draft picks but no self belief. Will make at least one game a week easy to pick in the tipping.